Indonesia rises 31 places in FIFA rankings: Genuine success or tactical mirage?

When the FIFA rankings for April 2026 were released, Indonesia had leaped from 149th to 118th, a jump of 31 places in just over three years. For Garuda fans, this is pure ecstasy. But for me, someone who has followed Southeast Asian football since my days as a technical consultant in Shanghai, this number tells a far more complex story. Context: Three coaches, three styles, one goal The journey from 149 to 118 was not achieved under a single head coach. It is the product of three different tacticians: South Korean Shin Tae-yong (nearly 2 years, +22 places), Dutchman Patrick Kluivert (9 months, +5 places), and Englishman John Herdman (7 months, +4 places). Each left their own mark, but the question remains: was a cohesive tactical identity built throughout, or is this just a patchwork of fragments? Shin Tae-yong, with his Korean-style physicality and discipline, engineered a physical revolution. He introduced high pressing, fast transitions, and maximized the use of naturalized Dutch-Indonesian players. The result: 22 places in 2 years – an impressive number, but primarily derived from wins against weaker regional opponents and weighted friendlies. Kluivert, with his Dutch attacking philosophy, tried to upgrade ball possession but only managed +5 places – a clear slowdown. Herdman, known as a tournament organizer, continued the momentum but with only +4 places, illustrating the law of diminishing returns: the higher you climb, the harder it gets. Core analysis: Tactics or just fate? What intrigues me is not the ranking itself, but how it was achieved. The FIFA ranking is a weighted average of results over four years. Indonesia maximized FIFA windows to organize friendlies against lower-ranked teams, safely accumulating points. But there is no notable win against a top-50 team. No landmark victory over Thailand, Vietnam, or Malaysia in an official competition. Specifically, under Shin Tae-yong, Indonesia won 8 of 12 friendlies, but only 2 of 6 matches in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. This reveals a heavy reliance on friendlies – where opponents often lack full motivation. This is a smart ranking strategy, but not a sustainable football tactic. A team aiming for the top 100 must defeat opponents like Iraq, UAE, or China. That requires a clear tactical identity, not just scheduling luck. Contrarian view: The blind spot of the rise I believe this rise could be a trap. Public and media pressure will place a huge expectation on Herdman: to win the 2026 ASEAN Cup. But historically, Indonesia has never won the AFF Cup (now FIFA ASEAN Cup). They have lost six finals. And this time, with a squad in transition between three coaching philosophies, the lack of tactical cohesion will be exposed against disciplined low-block defenses of Thailand and Vietnam. Moreover, the dependence on naturalized Dutch-Indonesian players – who often miss regional tournaments due to club release issues – could leave Indonesia without key pillars. Without them, the local core is not deep enough to sustain the ranking. This is the blind spot PSSI needs to see: the FIFA ranking does not reflect squad depth. Takeaway: Lessons for Vietnamese football and beyond Indonesia's 31-place rise is a commendable achievement, but it is not the destination. It is a mirror reflecting consistency, not the essence of strength. For Vietnamese football, this is a reminder: don't chase rankings by organizing easy friendlies. Build a youth development system, a distinctive playing style, and patience with coaches. Only then can Southeast Asian football truly rise globally. The 2026 ASEAN Cup will be the ultimate test. If Indonesia fails, the story of this rise will be quickly forgotten, and Herdman may become the next victim of the hot seat. If they succeed, it will be proof of a systemic transition. For now, I maintain my view: the ranking is a number that speaks, but it does not speak the truth.